Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd5d7…4952
world · 420 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,342 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,145 · open +$378
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4,747
Realized−$2,145
Unrealized+$378
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses233 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions31
Markets (closed)389 / 420
Avg bet$815
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 31 History 389 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,604
7 days+$3,349
14 days−$3,101
30 days−$4,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 67¢ 79¢ $1,581 $1,866 +$285 (+18%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $430 $460 +$29 (+7%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 75¢ 87¢ $350 $404 +$54 (+15%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $236 $233 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $263 $227 −$35 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 68¢ $180 $191 +$11 (+6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+0%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $161 $152 −$9 (-5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 58¢ $96 $119 +$23 (+24%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $110 $104 −$6 (-5%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 61¢ 64¢ $86 $91 +$5 (+6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? No 92¢ 96¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 93¢ 86¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 93¢ 96¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Mbappe 74¢ 76¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 81¢ 88¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $3,082 −$188 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 11 $292 −$20 -7%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $201 +$4 +2%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 11 $690 +$10 +2%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $73 +$16 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $285 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $3,652 −$101 -3%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $252 +$5 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $3,993 +$845 +21%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $9,427 +$1,421 +15%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 11 $101 +$5 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $525 +$17 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $290 −$86 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $620 −$71 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $361 −$12 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $3,551 +$422 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $3,359 +$372 +11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $130 +$15 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$5 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $430 −$56 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $110 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $577 +$12 +2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $343 +$65 +19%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $221 +$17 +8%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $61 +$19 +32%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $274 +$77 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $130 +$5 +4%
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $57 +$16 +29%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 08 $76 +$4 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $240 +$24 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $311 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $9,116 +$802 +9%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $5,930 −$253 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $20 −$11 -54%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $60 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $3,630 −$416 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,436 −$1,255 -23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6 $0 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $212 +$3 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,902 +$132 +7%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 03 $2 $0 -5%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $17,369 −$597 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% −$3,602
other 12% +$476
politics 6% +$61
sports 4% +$1,340
tech 1% −$142
crypto 1% +$82
economics 0% +$15
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 24m
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $50 30m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $190 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $200 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $15 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 38¢ $62 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $50 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 93¢ $30 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $332 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $148 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 10h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 64¢ $180 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $40 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $150 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 92¢ $70 10h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $50 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $1,095 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,031 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $500 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,441 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $206 13h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $79 13h
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $205 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 28% -3.4%
≤30d 98 -3.1% -12.3% 57% 19% -11.3%
≤90d 382 +1.8% -7.9% 60% 21% -10.2%
all 389 +1.2% -8.4% 60% 21% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 21% -10.2%
10% -17.2% 8% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 4% -26.6%
20% -32.5% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,746.59 · official $4,746.67 (match) · 3054 history records