Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D5 0xd5d8…e9a1 sports 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45,532 (-16%) realized −$43,983 · open −$1,549
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%78W / 111L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,481per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1,762est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4,158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,343
7 days+$7,994
14 days+$5,554
30 days+$7,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$2,715
politics 32% −$43,725
other 10% −$51
crypto 0% −$429
economics 0% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +18.2% +6.9% 54% 54% +16.5%
≤30d 60 +12.3% +1.6% 48% 48% +1.3%
≤90d 100 +5.7% -4.3% 49% 49% -2.2%
all 189 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 40% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -23.9%
10% -25.0% 40% -31.2%
15% -32.3% 38% -37.8%
20% -38.9% 37% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,368) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,413 vs −$1,399 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$4,158
Realized−$43,983
Unrealized−$1,549
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses78 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,762
Open positions8
Markets (closed)189 / 197
History coverage692d
Avg bet$1,481
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $1,100 $917 −$183 (-17%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $1,000 $910 −$90 (-9%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $752 $744 −$8 (-1%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 14¢ $1,000 $725 −$275 (-28%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 45¢ 44¢ $450 $445 −$5 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ $1,000 $20 −$980 (-98%)
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,024 +$1,076 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $962 −$946 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,045 −$1,030 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $537 −$530 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $229 +$252 +110%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $505 +$490 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $229 +$271 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $209 +$291 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $249 +$251 +101%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $684 −$675 -99%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $294 −$290 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $417 −$410 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $487 −$480 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $269 −$265 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $497 +$503 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,035 +$965 +93%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $975 +$1,025 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $416 −$410 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $491 +$1,509 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $246 −$240 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,368 +$1,379 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,004 −$987 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,109 +$891 +80%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $177 +$139 +78%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,021 +$2,488 +244%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,917 +$1,486 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,100 +$900 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $935 −$920 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,497 −$2,464 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $694 −$680 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,522 +$1,478 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,092 +$2,308 +110%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $516 +$784 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $587 +$429 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $92 −$90 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $217 −$214 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1,135 +$865 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $803 −$799 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $1,969 −$1,936 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $1,095 −$1,080 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $2,884 +$1,813 +63%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $427 −$420 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $1,075 −$1,060 -99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $2,646 +$951 +36%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,926 −$1,900 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,053 −$113 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $764 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $457 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $407 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,024 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $447 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $508 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $21 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $483 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $515 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $537 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $537 20h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $684 37h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $294 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $505 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $229 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $417 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $487 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $229 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $209 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $269 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $249 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $3 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $38 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $17 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $346 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $497 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $975 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,158.17 · official $4,158.17 (match) · 1181 history records