Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5d9…9872 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$11
politics 12% −$9
economics 5% −$2
sports 3% +$65
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.9% +4.0% 14% 14% -9.1%
≤30d 21 +4.9% -5.1% 10% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 106 +7.1% -3.1% 13% 11% -9.4%
all 106 +7.1% -3.1% 13% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 11% -9.4%
10% -12.4% 11% -18.0%
15% -20.9% 10% -26.0%
20% -28.6% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$529) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×12.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage93d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $373 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $410 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $735 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $422 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $153 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $318 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $690 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $336 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $920 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $337 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $320 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $335 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $960 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $334 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $327 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $676 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $329 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $351 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $946 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $358 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 25 $354 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $988 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $366 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $348 −$5 -1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $863 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 6h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $74 25h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $75 28h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $138 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $66 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $66 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 10d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $136 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 10d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.14 · official $274.14 (match) · 346 history records