Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5da…ff1d sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,652 (-31%) realized −$4,557 · open −$95
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%39W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$236
14 days−$615
30 days−$631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$2,836
other 24% −$721
crypto 19% −$1,264
politics 0% +$4
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -65.1% -68.4% 20% 20% -61.3%
≤30d 10 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 10% -77.8%
≤90d 59 -32.3% -38.8% 37% 29% -50.5%
all 97 -16.5% -24.4% 40% 33% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 33% -38.7%
10% -31.6% 30% -44.5%
15% -38.3% 23% -49.9%
20% -44.3% 18% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$129 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,557
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 58
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage128d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Phoenix Mercury 59¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $97 −$95 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $101 +$75 +74%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $105 −$104 -99%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $253 −$253 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $122 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +10%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $119 −$119 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova May 22 $64 +$66 +104%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 21 $44 +$24 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 20 $103 +$126 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $396 −$382 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 20 $68 −$66 -97%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $201 +$53 +26%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5 May 20 $253 +$122 +48%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Bengaluru 3: Takuya Kumasaka vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 19 $110 −$43 -39%
Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong May 19 $98 +$46 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $30 +$10 +34%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $46 −$15 -32%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $56 +$50 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 15 $68 −$42 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $31 −$22 -70%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $393 −$388 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $480 +$2 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 207.5 May 14 $330 +$155 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $192 −$25 -13%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5 Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 21 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $760 −$690 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $392 +$418 +107%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $335 −$4 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $200 +$104 +52%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Apr 09 $800 −$800 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 09 $199 −$199 -100%
Celtics vs. Spurs Apr 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Nets vs. Warriors Apr 09 $197 −$197 -100%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Apr 09 $650 −$650 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 09 $164 −$164 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Mavericks vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline Apr 09 $570 −$570 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 8? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $90 +$3 +3%
Warriors vs. Thunder Apr 09 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 04 $131 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 59¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 31¢ $97 3d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 39¢ $2 3d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 43¢ $79 3d
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 99¢ $3 3d
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 99¢ $174 3d
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 56¢ $101 3d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 70¢ $105 4d
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Jacob Fearnley $8 8d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 23¢ $23 11d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 23¢ $47 11d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 23¢ $183 11d
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 49¢ $122 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $28 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 13d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 44¢ $16 29d
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone BUY Casper Ruud 54¢ $119 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova SELL Linda Fruhvirtova 100¢ $130 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 49¢ $8 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 49¢ $15 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 49¢ $5 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 49¢ $19 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 49¢ $7 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 49¢ $1 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 49¢ $4 31d
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova BUY Linda Fruhvirtova 49¢ $5 31d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 64¢ $44 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down $11 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $41 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 320 history records