Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5db…3c45 world 424 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 274d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,333 (-5%) realized −$6,929 · open −$404
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%161W / 321L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,061
7 days−$14,748
14 days−$15,127
30 days−$15,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1,417
other 18% +$804
politics 9% +$888
crypto 5% −$325
finance 3% +$94
sports 1% −$129
culture 1% −$158
economics 0% −$206
tech 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +7.8% -2.5% 10% 8% -74.9%
≤30d 122 +18.7% +7.4% 16% 9% -57.3%
≤90d 221 +28.3% +16.1% 27% 18% -25.2%
all 482 +7.8% -2.4% 33% 24% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 24% -17.9%
10% -11.8% 18% -25.8%
15% -20.3% 15% -32.9%
20% -28.1% 10% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$89 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$2,787
Realized−$6,929
Unrealized−$404
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses161 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions28
Markets (closed)482 / 424
History coverage274d ⚠
Avg bet$315
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $628 $650 +$21 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 63¢ 65¢ $410 $420 +$10 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 67¢ 67¢ $401 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $371 $365 −$6 (-2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $57 $364 +$307 (+540%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $219 $226 +$7 (+3%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $34 $72 +$38 (+110%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $8 $52 +$44 (+525%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $52 $38 −$14 (-27%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 20¢ 1¢ $407 $19 −$388 (-95%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $130 $13 −$117 (-90%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $126 $6 −$120 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 42¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+131%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+257%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $173 $4 −$168 (-97%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 34¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 189 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Latvia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jun 17 $44 −$898 -2050%
Will the match between Anderlecht and TSG Hoffenheim end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump endorse Lindsey Graham for SC-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Another state declare a state of emergency over bird flu before Februa Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Debt ceiling raised or suspended by inauguration? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,511 −$1,494 -99%
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30? Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,045 −$2,045 -100%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before 2025? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 17 $1 +$74 +10308%
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? Jun 17 $0 −$19 -16698%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" this week? (September 1 - 7) Jun 17 $0 +$6 +2851%
Will the US sanction UK before April? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Democratic candidate win Michigan by 4.0% or more? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
RedNote removed from App Store by Friday? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
India x Pakistan ceasefire announced before June? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix pole? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran behind June 12 internet outages? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 17 $32 −$41 -130%
Will the US sanction Russia before May? Jun 17 $120 −$115 -96%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? Jun 17 $75 −$83 -110%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei seen in public before July? Jun 17 $20 −$25 -125%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump visit LA by Sunday? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1? Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration? Jun 17 $259 −$259 -100%
Trump meets with Carney before June? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the match between Stuttgart and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
F1 Belgian GP: Hamilton vs. Russell Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jun 17 $2,649 −$2,311 -87%
Israel military action against Iran in April? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic Party before March? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $59 38m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $188 38m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 2¢ $19 44m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 18¢ $92 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 21¢ $103 47m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $82 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 65¢ $59 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $63 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 55¢ $55 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 57¢ $83 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 53¢ $24 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $26 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 47¢ $47 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 55¢ $1 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 55¢ $6 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 55¢ $18 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 55¢ $77 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 54¢ $100 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 73¢ $73 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 74¢ $293 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $42 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 11¢ $7 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $8 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 66¢ $198 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 68¢ $204 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 71¢ $220 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 3¢ $30 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 72¢ $360 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 75¢ $453 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,786.62 · official $2,778.27 (match) · 3500 history records