Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5dc…c622 world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 41L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$10
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$25
other 21% −$3
sports 12% $0
politics 11% −$4
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 22 +4.4% -5.5% 32% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 29 +3.4% -6.5% 31% 7% -9.2%
all 61 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 5% -9.3%
10% -16.6% 2% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage325d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $137 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $504 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $256 −$16 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $128 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $17 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $243 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $77 +$4 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $211 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $127 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $186 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $139 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $34 +$4 +13%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $69 −$3 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $17 −$3 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $25 +$29 +117%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $107 +$6 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $52 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $197 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $36 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $549 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $605 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $304 −$3 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 12 $67 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 11 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 10 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July? Aug 10 $21 $0 +1%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Jul 31 $21 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 31 $1 $0 +19%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $103 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $127 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $125 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $78 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $114 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $44 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $71 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $113 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $61 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $50 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $116 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $42 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.31 · official $101.52 (match) · 266 history records