Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

D5 0xd5de…4a38 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$34 (+39%) realized +$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate62%13W / 8L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day47.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+1.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+12.4%	+1.7%	62%	48%	-1.9%
≤30d	21	+12.4%	+1.7%	62%	48%	-1.9%
≤90d	21	+12.4%	+1.7%	62%	48%	-1.9%
all	21	+12.4%	+1.7%	62%	48%	-1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover47.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+1.7%	48%	-1.9%
10% ← realistic here	-8.1%	38%	-11.3%
15%	-17.0%	33%	-19.9%
20%	-25.1%	33%	-27.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +46% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.3 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses13 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day47.0

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 15	$7	−$2	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 15	$4	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Jun 15	$3	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$3	+121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 15	$2	+$1	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 15	$7	+$5	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$1	-20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Jun 15	$6	−$2	-32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 15	$3	+$1	+34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 15	$6	+$4	+64%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 15	$3	+$10	+326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 15	$3	+$3	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 15	$3	+$1	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+112%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox	Jun 15	$11	+$1	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$3	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$3	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$3	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$2	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	SELL Down	72¢	$3	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$2	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$2	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$2	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$3	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$3	4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$2	4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$3	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$3	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$27	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$4	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$3	4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$10	4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$3	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records