Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5df…97e7 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$10
other 26% +$1
sports 21% −$13
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -0.8% -10.2% 21% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 47 +34.2% +21.5% 26% 4% -9.9%
all 48 +31.4% +18.9% 25% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 4% -10.3%
10% +7.5% 2% -18.8%
15% -2.8% 2% -26.7%
20% -12.4% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage492d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $68 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $49 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $87 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $3 $0 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $87 −$5 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $32 −$2 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $56 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $89 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $253 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $254 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $279 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $60 −$2 -2%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Missouri State vs. Valparaiso Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $18 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $18 30h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 35h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 37h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 39h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $25 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $26 40h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $26 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $32 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $34 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $20 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $38 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $38 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records