Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:20:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5df…8f9b sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 676d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,520 (-46%) realized −$1,442 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$839
other 37% −$697
crypto 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -59.3% -63.2% 0% 0% -42.4%
≤30d 6 -29.8% -36.5% 17% 17% -49.5%
≤90d 7 -39.9% -45.6% 14% 14% -56.1%
all 24 -37.3% -43.3% 21% 21% -63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 21% -63.4%
10% -48.7% 21% -66.9%
15% -53.7% 21% -70.1%
20% -58.2% 21% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$110 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized−$1,442
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions13
Markets (closed)24 / 37
History coverage676d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $90 $83 −$7 (-8%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $105 $82 −$22 (-21%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $52 $39 −$14 (-26%)
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-48%)
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $34 −$6 -19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $224 −$220 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $264 −$260 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $103 +$247 +240%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $140 −$140 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $168 −$168 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $97 +$114 +118%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 13 $15 −$15 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $25 +$56 +223%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 12 $49 +$113 +230%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $80 +$90 +113%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31? Dec 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Lions vs. 49ers Dec 30 $99 −$99 -100%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? Aug 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $75 1h
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 37h
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 37h
Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 37h
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 2d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $28 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6d
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 13d
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 18d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $264 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $350 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $51 29d
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.43 · official $692.43 (match) · 118 history records