Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5e1…1c77 crypto 971 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$861 (-5%) realized −$861 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%563W / 429L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$165
14 days−$189
30 days−$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$868
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% −$30
other 0% −$4
sports 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -16.8% -24.7% 58% 47% -14.1%
≤30d 319 -15.9% -23.9% 53% 42% -14.8%
≤90d 992 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 42% -15.9%
all 992 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 42% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 26% -24.0%
15% -32.5% 17% -31.3%
20% -39.1% 11% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$861
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses563 / 429
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)992 / 971
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 992 Trades
no open positions (199 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$6 -135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$15 -555%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$19 -586%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$16 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$16 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$23 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$23 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $115 +$74 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $38 −$23 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $56 +$72 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$22 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$31 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $44 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $38 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $46 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $39 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $37 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $42 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $35 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $35 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records