Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5e3…2819 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-7%) realized −$17 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$20
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$53
other 45% +$27
crypto 2% $0
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -0.3% -9.8% 37% 37% -5.8%
≤30d 47 -4.9% -13.9% 36% 36% -10.0%
≤90d 47 -4.9% -13.9% 36% 36% -10.0%
all 47 -4.9% -13.9% 36% 36% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 36% -10.0%
10% -22.2% 36% -18.6%
15% -29.7% 36% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 34% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 57
History coverage8d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Over 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$17 +165%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 +$16 +52%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$8 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$6 +109%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$12 +122%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1116%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +68%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 +$6 +307%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 33¢ $20 1h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 19h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $30 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $10 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 24¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 41¢ $15 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $1 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 31¢ $5 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $5 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay win BUY 3¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $41 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.69 · official $24.69 · 78 history records