Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd5e3…85fa
other · 78 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$16 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)57 / 78
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 21 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists Yes 5¢ 50¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+859%)
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Yes 13¢ 50¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+285%)
Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists Yes 14¢ 50¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+257%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 28¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Daichi Kamada: 1+ assists Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists Yes 19¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Donyell Malen: 1+ assists Yes 18¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 21¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Scott McTominay: 2+ goals Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lawrence Shankland: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$4 +438%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Arda Güler: 2+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Lee Kangin: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Lee Jaesung: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Son Heungmin: 2+ Goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$8 +784%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Scott McTominay: 2+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Lawrence Shankland: 2+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
John McGinn: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 +$1 +136%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 +$3 +339%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 +$6 +543%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$23 +1142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 83% −$8
sports 15% +$15
crypto 1% $0
world 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 21m
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 21m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 28¢ $1 55m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $1 55m
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 57m
Donyell Malen: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $1 58m
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $1 58m
Daichi Kamada: 1+ assists BUY Yes 11¢ $1 58m
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $1 58m
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $1 59m
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $1 59m
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $1 13h
Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 18% -5.4%
≤30d 57 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 18% -5.4%
≤90d 57 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 18% -5.4%
all 57 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 18% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 18% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 18% -14.5%
15% -26.1% 18% -22.7%
20% -33.3% 16% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.41 · official $29.42 (match) · 126 history records