Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D5 0xd5e5…1eac crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$190 (+20%) realized +$522 · open −$332
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$188
14 days+$188
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$332
sports 35% +$203
crypto 2% −$14
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.1% -17.7% 71% 43% +39.8%
≤30d 8 -20.4% -28.0% 62% 38% +39.4%
≤90d 10 -16.3% -24.3% 60% 40% +39.2%
all 10 -16.3% -24.3% 60% 40% +39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 40% +39.2%
10% -31.5% 30% +25.9%
15% -38.1% 20% +13.7%
20% -44.2% 20% +2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +54% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$4 · ×8.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.2 per $1 lost it wins $12.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$522
Unrealized−$332
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage62d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $520 $188 −$332 (-64%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $323 +$202 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 28 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $525 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $525 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $323 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Xtreme Gaming $0 28d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Xtreme Gaming 30¢ $1 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $1 48d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 32¢ $1 61d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 31¢ $1 61d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 32¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.88 · official $191.88 (match) · 29 history records