Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5e7…d0cf sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,386 (+5%) realized +$1,430 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%35W / 30L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$723
14 days+$723
30 days+$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,067
other 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 60% +26.1%
≤30d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 60% +26.1%
≤90d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 60% +26.1%
all 65 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 46% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 46% -5.8%
10% -22.5% 42% -14.8%
15% -30.0% 38% -23.0%
20% -36.8% 32% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$169 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,430
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses35 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage249d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 39¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $157 +$108 +69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $506 +$225 +44%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $152 +$98 +64%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 +$55 +54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $207 +$118 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $132 +$75 +57%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $132 +$100 +76%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $2,510 −$65 -3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $518 −$518 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $396 −$396 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $475 +$138 +29%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $220 −$20 -9%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 06 $156 −$156 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 06 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 06 $276 −$276 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $2,900 +$26 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $100 +$156 +156%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $137 +$154 +113%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $366 +$471 +129%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $300 +$366 +122%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $2,122 +$402 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 30 $199 −$199 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Oct 30 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Oct 29 $2,100 +$85 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 28 $60 +$137 +228%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $600 +$250 +42%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $200 +$208 +104%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $189 +$215 +114%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 25 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Oct 25 $480 +$209 +43%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $900 +$480 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $45 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $265 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $731 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $157 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $506 4h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 52¢ $101 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $175 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $217 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $250 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $152 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $156 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $325 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $207 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $132 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $132 5d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 75¢ $327 148d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan SELL Japan 75¢ $2,118 148d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 77¢ $2,510 148d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $518 224d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $396 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 99¢ $361 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 146 history records