Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5e7…bda6 crypto 356 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate83%295W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 352 -0.5% -10.0% 83% 47% -11.7%
≤30d 352 -0.5% -10.0% 83% 47% -11.7%
≤90d 355 -0.4% -9.9% 83% 47% -11.6%
all 356 -0.4% -9.8% 83% 47% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 47% -11.6%
10% -18.5% 29% -20.1%
15% -26.3% 17% -27.8%
20% -33.6% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses295 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)356 / 356
History coverage93d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 356 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 673 history records