Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5e8…ceef crypto 287 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10,727 (-3%) realized −$10,727 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate91%260W / 26L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,418per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$138
14 days+$137
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$8,840
other 4% +$2,258
sports 1% −$4,335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 46% +1.9%
≤30d 137 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 17% -10.4%
≤90d 137 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 17% -10.4%
all 286 +1.1% -8.6% 91% 30% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 30% -12.0%
10% -17.3% 9% -20.4%
15% -25.3% 2% -28.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$1,527 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,727
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses260 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)286 / 287
History coverage194d
Avg bet$1,418
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 286 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $140 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $79 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $69 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $98 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $78 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $69 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $202 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 06 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $191 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $167 +$25 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $132 +$29 +22%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $129 +$9 +7%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $105 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 06 $99 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 02 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 02 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $126 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 02 $121 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $106 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $93 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $93 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 01 $465 −$465 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $461 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $140 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $78 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 11¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $98 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $90 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $91 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $90 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $78 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $69 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $227 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $222 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $202 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $204 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $202 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $191 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $192 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $167 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $161 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $132 14d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 14d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 93¢ $129 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $60.00 · 626 history records