Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5eb…87b3 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% $0
crypto 13% $0
politics 12% −$9
sports 6% $0
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 14 -9.5% -18.2% 29% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -11.1%
10% -26.0% 0% -19.6%
15% -33.1% 0% -27.4%
20% -39.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage121d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $147 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? Apr 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $301 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 25? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 19? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $27 $0 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $147 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $147 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $144 60d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $54 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $54 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $37 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $108 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $108 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $48 93d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 100d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $19 114d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 114d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records