Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D5 0xd5eb…89ce sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$53 (+6%) realized +$54 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate71%12W / 5L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$121

7 days+$30

14 days+$13

30 days+$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+36.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+60.1%	+44.9%	75%	69%	-5.8%
≤30d	17	+50.7%	+36.4%	71%	65%	-8.0%
≤90d	17	+50.7%	+36.4%	71%	65%	-8.0%
all	17	+50.7%	+36.4%	71%	65%	-8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.4%	65%	-8.0%
10%	+23.3%	59%	-16.8%
15%	+11.4%	41%	-24.8%
20%	+0.5%	41%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +65% → late +38% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$45 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$96

Realized+$54

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses12 / 5

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 24

History coverage9d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Yes	56¢	56¢	$97	$96	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$167	−$166	-99%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$50	+$17	+34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 28	$30	−$30	-99%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 28	$4	−$4	-98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026	Jun 28	$21	+$22	+107%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$128	+$33	+26%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$21	+$6	+31%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will England win on 2026-06	Jun 27	$10	+$15	+153%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: Bo	Jun 27	$7	+$20	+292%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$100	+$6	+6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to S	Jun 26	$10	+$8	+84%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire	Jun 25	$25	+$19	+77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$8	−$8	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$105	+$21	+20%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	Jun 24	$0	+$2	+344%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	Jun 24	$36	+$67	+188%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$17	−$17	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$45	5m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$54	10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	73¢	$167	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	74¢	$50	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY	43¢	$20	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$30	26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY South Africa	26¢	$4	32h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	79¢	$128	44h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	76¢	$21	47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2	BUY	52¢	$16	2d
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will South Africa win on 202	BUY	7¢	$5	2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND Will England win on 2026-06	BUY	39¢	$10	2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: Bo	BUY	25¢	$7	2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	94¢	$100	3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Tea	BUY	25¢	$8	3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to S	BUY	54¢	$10	4d
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026	BUY	48¢	$21	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	44¢	$8	4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany	BUY	33¢	$10	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25	BUY	24¢	$5	4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire	BUY	56¢	$25	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$105	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	34¢	$36	8d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	BUY	22¢	$0	8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$17	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.05 · official $96.05 (match) · 37 history records