Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5ed…590c crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-39%) realized −$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$6
other 32% −$13
sports 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -70.0% -72.9% 8% 8% -81.2%
≤30d 12 -70.0% -72.9% 8% 8% -81.2%
≤90d 12 -70.0% -72.9% 8% 8% -81.2%
all 44 -43.1% -48.6% 25% 25% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 25% -47.1%
10% -53.5% 25% -52.1%
15% -58.0% 25% -56.7%
20% -62.1% 16% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage197d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 07 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 31 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 31 $1 +$1 +39%
Spurs vs. Hornets Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 31 $2 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 31 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 25-December 1? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 01 $1 +$4 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 01 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 01 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Nov 30 $1 $0 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Nov 30 $1 +$1 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Mavericks vs. Lakers BUY Mavericks 29¢ $1 123d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 28¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $4 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 124d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 31¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 128d
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies BUY Timberwolves 1¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.91 (match) · 82 history records