Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd5ee…175b weather 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+0%) realized +$199 · open −$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -98% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%1W / 604L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$11,986
other 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-98.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 417 -99.3% -99.3% 0% 0% -79.0%
≤30d 533 -99.0% -99.1% 0% 0% -88.8%
≤90d 605 -98.4% -98.5% 0% 0% -90.4%
all 605 -98.4% -98.5% 0% 0% -90.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -98.5% 0% -90.4%
10% ← realistic here -98.7% 0% -91.3%
15% -98.8% 0% -92.2%
20% -98.9% 0% -92.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -98% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses1 / 604
Open positions22
Markets (closed)605 / 170
History coverage40d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 97¢ $18 $194 +$175 (+965%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $18 $2 −$17 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 17? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 478 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 17 $0 −$12 -99220%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 10? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 13? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on May 23? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 30? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on May 30? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on May 14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 28? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16? Jun 17 $0 −$10 -16166%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 7? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 28? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 2? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on May 25? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 3? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 11? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? Jun 17 $1 −$8 -957%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 14? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 20h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.48 · official $196.35 (match) · 1468 history records