Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5f2…8edc world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$5
sports 16% +$1
other 15% +$4
politics 15% $0
crypto 6% +$1
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 0% -8.7%
all 49 +2.2% -7.6% 43% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 2% -8.6%
10% -16.4% 2% -17.3%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.3%
20% -31.9% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage370d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $32 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $65 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $33 −$2 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $31 +$3 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July? Aug 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 10 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $112K August 4–10? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 4? Aug 10 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 21 $24 $0 -1%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 20 $19 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 19 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $34 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $32 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $7 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 22h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $31 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $33 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $36 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $36 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $25 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $25 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $29 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.05 · official $33.05 (match) · 186 history records