Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5f2…042e sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$639 (-13%) realized −$606 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$675
14 days−$705
30 days−$705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$504
other 5% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -25.1% -32.2% 50% 27% -23.5%
≤30d 59 -18.5% -26.3% 51% 31% -22.8%
≤90d 59 -18.5% -26.3% 51% 31% -22.8%
all 59 -18.5% -26.3% 51% 31% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 31% -22.8%
10% -33.3% 22% -30.2%
15% -39.8% 15% -36.9%
20% -45.7% 8% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$44 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$606
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage8d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 63¢ 36¢ $79 $46 −$33 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit Jun 21 $20 +$8 +39%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $20 +$6 +29%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $20 −$13 -65%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $20 +$6 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $97 +$5 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $89 +$8 +9%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $84 +$4 +5%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $30 −$3 -11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $81 +$7 +9%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $81 −$79 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $93 −$12 -12%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $95 −$3 -3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $30 −$14 -46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $30 −$13 -44%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $30 −$9 -30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $101 −$65 -64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $116 −$48 -41%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $100 +$27 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $204 +$12 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $289 +$14 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $67 +$16 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $264 +$9 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $242 +$23 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $225 +$16 +7%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $61 −$29 -48%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $61 −$22 -36%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $61 +$46 +76%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $70 +$13 +18%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $203 +$15 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $183 +$19 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $151 +$22 +14%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $55 +$6 +11%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $56 +$37 +67%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $56 +$24 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 63¢ $79 31m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit SELL Giles Hussey 97¢ $28 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm SELL Marc Polmans 100¢ $26 1h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 57¢ $20 1h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $30 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 29¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 67¢ $20 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit BUY Giles Hussey 69¢ $20 2h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 84¢ $20 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 80¢ $20 3h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Marc Polmans 77¢ $20 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk BUY Aleksandar Vukic 78¢ $20 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $102 24h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $102 24h
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $97 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $98 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $97 38h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $97 41h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $89 44h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $88 44h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $84 47h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 76¢ $27 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 84¢ $30 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $88 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $81 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 41¢ $81 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 71¢ $81 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $93 3d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 79¢ $93 3d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $95 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.53 · official $45.53 (match) · 115 history records