Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5f6…ac93 other 48 markets active 5d ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$375 (-55%) realized −$375 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%6W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$207
crypto 43% −$118
sports 10% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-66.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -83.0% -84.6% 0% 0% -77.1%
≤30d 14 -97.6% -97.8% 0% 0% -93.8%
≤90d 19 -84.3% -85.8% 5% 5% -69.0%
all 48 -62.7% -66.2% 12% 12% -59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.2% 12% -59.9%
10% -69.4% 8% -63.7%
15% -72.4% 6% -67.2%
20% -75.1% 6% -70.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$375
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage162d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 13 $20 −$13 -66%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 02 $10 −$9 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $15 −$14 -95%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 1? May 31 $5 −$4 -94%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 20? May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5) May 17 $27 −$21 -76%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -83%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $7 −$4 -50%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11AM ET May 17 $56 −$28 -49%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 10AM ET May 17 $23 +$5 +22%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 3? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 22? Feb 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-04? Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 10? Feb 04 $52 −$26 -50%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 8? Feb 03 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 4? Feb 03 $27 +$24 +87%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Feb 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Feb 03 $27 +$6 +21%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Shrewsbury Town FC end in a draw? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cheltenham Town FC vs. Leicester City FC end in a draw? Jan 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $22 −$5 -21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $23 $0 -2%
Will Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jan 07 $3 +$3 +98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $1 +$2 +189%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Cameroon win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 07 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Burkina Faso win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will DR Congo win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Jan 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mozambique win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-01-04? Jan 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will South Africa win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Mali win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 06 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Tunisia win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $7 5d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 5d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 16d
Solana Up or Down on June 1? BUY Up 24¢ $15 17d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 1? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 27d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY No 5¢ $11 28d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 29d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 31d
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5) SELL Olympique Lyonnais 15¢ $7 31d
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5) BUY Olympique Lyonnais 58¢ $27 31d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 2¢ $0 31d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 2¢ $0 31d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 12¢ $2 31d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 31d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 31d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 13¢ $1 31d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31d
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 32d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 32d
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 32d
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $3 32d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $28 112d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $28 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $28 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records