Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5f8…b500 crypto 1391 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$146 (-3%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate76%1054W / 336L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$57
14 days−$89
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -5.4% -14.4% 71% 27% -13.9%
≤30d 1286 -2.7% -11.9% 77% 32% -12.3%
≤90d 1390 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 33% -12.5%
all 1390 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 33% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 20% -20.8%
15% -28.4% 14% -28.5%
20% -35.4% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1054 / 336
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1390 / 1391
History coverage54d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1390 Trades
no open positions (214 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2650 history records