Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5fb…b01b weather 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$455 (+9%) realized +$471 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%72W / 115L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$132
14 days+$271
30 days+$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% +$292
sports 40% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +10.0% -0.5% 39% 39% +2.5%
≤30d 131 +28.7% +16.5% 45% 44% +1.1%
≤90d 187 +14.0% +3.1% 39% 37% -1.3%
all 187 +14.0% +3.1% 39% 37% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 37% -1.3%
10% -6.7% 36% -10.8%
15% -15.7% 34% -19.4%
20% -24.0% 29% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$17 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$471
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses72 / 115
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)187 / 190
History coverage45d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? No 68¢ 55¢ $150 $120 −$30 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $51 $63 +$12 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $71 +$145 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $34 −$10 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $96 +$22 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$124 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $63 +$138 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $71 −$7 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 +$103 +213%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 −$11 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$87 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $41 −$39 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$91 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $28 +$72 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $34 +$69 +205%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $34 +$64 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$7 -54%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$17 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $25 +$35 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$14 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$55 +371%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $34 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $13 +$6 +48%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $71 +$46 +64%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $91 +$84 +92%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $71 −$70 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$95 +1898%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 05 $111 −$110 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $29 −$28 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $24 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 63¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $101 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $43 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 13¢ $24 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.70 · official $222.70 (match) · 873 history records