Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5fc…68ff sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$148 (-13%) realized −$145 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%15W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day79.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$116
other 38% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -28.9% -35.7% 9% 6% -22.0%
≤30d 162 -28.9% -35.7% 9% 6% -22.0%
≤90d 162 -28.9% -35.7% 9% 6% -22.0%
all 162 -28.9% -35.7% 9% 6% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.7% 6% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 4% -29.5%
15% -47.5% 4% -36.3%
20% -52.6% 2% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses15 / 147
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)162 / 165
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day79.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 2.5 Over 19¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Over 16¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Over 34¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$6 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$10 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 +$14 +19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -37%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $59 +$21 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$20 +48%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $51 −$35 -69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $155 +$5 +3%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 −$3 -8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +223%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 +$5 +150%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -90%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 −$13 -87%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -61%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 −$3 -54%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$3 -66%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 16¢ $8 30m
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 15¢ $8 51m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $28 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 29¢ $20 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Clement Tabur 81¢ $36 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 79¢ $35 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $40 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $32 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $76 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $84 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 88¢ $19 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 30¢ $6 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $1.26 (match) · 487 history records