trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +10.9% | +0.3% | 50% | 50% | -2.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -11.0% | -19.5% | 50% | 17% | -22.3% |
| all | 23 | -10.9% | -19.4% | 65% | 13% | -12.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.4% | 13% | -12.4% |
| 10% | -27.1% | 0% | -20.8% |
| 15% | -34.1% | 0% | -28.4% |
| 20% | -40.6% | 0% | -35.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 87¢ | 87¢ | $516 | $516 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $496 | $506 | +$9 (+2%) |
| Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 73¢ | 66¢ | $335 | $300 | −$34 (-10%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $118 | $93 | −$25 (-21%) |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 14¢ | 13¢ | $64 | $61 | −$3 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Jun 18 | $584 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 21 | $330 | +$72 | +22% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 19 | $535 | +$31 | +6% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 10 | $2,071 | −$1,536 | -74% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Apr 04 | $4,054 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? | Apr 03 | $1,947 | +$124 | +6% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Mar 19 | $39 | −$36 | -93% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Mar 19 | $2,401 | −$144 | -6% |
| Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Feb 26 | $23 | −$18 | -80% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Feb 04 | $2,352 | +$62 | +3% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 22 | $1,909 | +$364 | +19% |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Jan 22 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? | Jan 20 | $81 | +$6 | +7% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jan 20 | $38 | −$25 | -66% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 12 | $1,872 | +$38 | +2% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jan 10 | $915 | +$26 | +3% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Jan 04 | $575 | +$3 | +1% |
| BNB all time high by December 31? | Jan 04 | $1,374 | +$12 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Dec 25 | $600 | +$13 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 16 | $1,345 | +$27 | +2% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Nov 16 | $1,389 | −$45 | -3% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $1,420 | +$179 | +13% |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Nov 04 | $17 | +$2 | +9% |