Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

D6 0xd602…d370 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$84 (+2%) realized −$129 · open +$213

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate76%13W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$198per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$2,802now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$188

7 days+$188

14 days+$188

30 days+$188

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)-1.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+31.0%	+18.5%	100%	83%	+18.6%
≤30d	6	+31.0%	+18.5%	100%	83%	+18.6%
≤90d	6	+31.0%	+18.5%	100%	83%	+18.6%
all	17	+9.2%	-1.2%	76%	71%	-2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.2%	71%	-2.6%
10%	-10.7%	47%	-11.9%
15%	-19.3%	24%	-20.4%
20%	-27.2%	24%	-28.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$51 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.43 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage

Net worth$2,802

Realized−$129

Unrealized+$213

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses13 / 4

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage149d

Avg bet$198

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	88¢	100¢	$1,589	$1,811	+$222 (+14%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$1,000	$991	−$9 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$101	+$85	+84%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 28	$101	+$35	+35%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5	Jun 28	$101	+$31	+31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$100	+$16	+16%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 27	$100	+$17	+17%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$100	+$3	+3%
CA Tigre vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5	Feb 02	$13	−$13	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?	Feb 02	$5	+$8	+163%
Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 3.5	Feb 02	$76	−$76	-100%
CA Rosario Central vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5	Feb 02	$68	+$13	+19%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5	Feb 02	$60	+$7	+12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?	Feb 01	$37	+$23	+63%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01?	Feb 01	$6	+$3	+54%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01?	Feb 01	$95	−$95	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?	Feb 01	$96	+$24	+25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31?	Feb 01	$74	+$26	+35%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-30?	Jan 30	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Boston Red Sox	91¢	$89	1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Boston Red Sox	89¢	$1,304	1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Boston Red Sox	79¢	$201	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	99¢	$187	5h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL No	98¢	$136	5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$132	5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	75¢	$101	6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	7h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY No	72¢	$101	8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	27h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL No	100¢	$118	27h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$103	27h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5	BUY Under	97¢	$100	28h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY No	85¢	$100	28h
CA Tigre vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	90¢	$13	146d
Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	88¢	$76	146d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?	BUY No	38¢	$5	146d
CA Rosario Central vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$81	147d
CA Rosario Central vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	84¢	$68	147d
CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$67	147d
CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	89¢	$60	147d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	147d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?	BUY Yes	62¢	$12	147d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	147d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?	BUY Yes	61¢	$24	147d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01?	BUY Yes	95¢	$95	147d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?	SELL Yes	100¢	$120	147d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01?	BUY Yes	65¢	$6	147d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?	BUY Yes	80¢	$96	148d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,802.11 · official $2,802.11 (match) · 35 history records