Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd604…cb5f sports 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (206 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$127,125 (+33%) realized +$143,504 · open −$16,379
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate39%185W / 292L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,422per market
Trades / day206.4pace
Fees−$1,827est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$91,620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$8,853
other 44% −$18,073
world 1% +$97
politics 0% +$144
crypto 0% +$980
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (206 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 428 -15.3% -23.4% 34% 17% -19.3%
≤30d 477 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 19% -17.8%
≤90d 477 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 19% -17.8%
all 477 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 19% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 19% -17.8%
10% -26.2% 16% -25.7%
15% ← realistic here -33.3% 14% -32.9%
20% -39.8% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$828) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$636 vs −$627 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$91,620
Realized+$143,504
Unrealized−$16,379
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses185 / 292
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,827
Open positions45
Markets (closed)477 / 270
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$1,422
Trades / day206.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $25,000 $41,675 +$16,675 (+67%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 81¢ 80¢ $9,414 $9,263 −$151 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $25,000 $8,325 −$16,675 (-67%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 91¢ 92¢ $4,559 $4,575 +$16 (+0%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 83¢ 84¢ $4,149 $4,174 +$25 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 84¢ 86¢ $2,433 $2,476 +$43 (+2%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $2,385 $2,392 +$7 (+0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 93¢ 93¢ $2,103 $2,103 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,986 $1,997 +$11 (+1%)
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) Panama 99¢ 99¢ $1,980 $1,989 +$9 (+0%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Under 98¢ 97¢ $1,960 $1,948 −$12 (-1%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 74¢ 77¢ $1,528 $1,596 +$68 (+4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $1,436 $1,448 +$12 (+1%)
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? No 58¢ 76¢ $869 $1,140 +$271 (+31%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 51¢ 52¢ $1,020 $1,050 +$30 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $630 $626 −$4 (-1%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 75¢ 93¢ $465 $577 +$112 (+24%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $566 $486 −$81 (-14%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 66¢ $557 $430 −$127 (-23%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners Under 48¢ 84¢ $244 $424 +$180 (+74%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 12¢ 12¢ $409 $391 −$18 (-4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $295 $297 +$2 (+1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 82¢ 92¢ $262 $291 +$29 (+11%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 90¢ 88¢ $288 $280 −$8 (-3%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 51¢ 52¢ $255 $262 +$7 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 300 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Denmark win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Slovan Liberec win Czechia Fortuna Liga? Jun 17 $181 −$296 -164%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $3,064 −$3,064 -100%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 −$1,872 -134%
Will Great Britain win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $568 −$568 -100%
Will AEK Larnaca win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Jun 17 $828 −$828 -100%
ELH: Dynamo Pardubice vs. Trinec Jun 17 $20 −$18 -90%
Will Slovenia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $568 −$568 -100%
Will SK Slavia Praha vs. FK Jablonec end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 17 $27 −$20 -73%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $746 +$13,342 +1788%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? Jun 17 $1,336 −$1,014 -76%
Will Real Betis win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $3,064 −$3,064 -100%
Spread: Burnley FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lazio win Coppa Italia? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
World Championships: Hungary vs. Latvia Jun 17 $72 −$76 -104%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 −$1,700 -122%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -176%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 +$833 +60%
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway Jun 17 $6 +$13 +225%
Will Feyenoord win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 −$1,872 -134%
Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engl Jun 17 $1,971 −$1,971 -100%
Will G2 win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $8,828 +$32,797 +372%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 −$1,509 -108%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $3,064 −$3,064 -100%
Will Latvia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $568 −$547 -96%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 −$1,319 -95%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 17 $4 +$1,837 +46652%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 −$1,872 -134%
Will Celtic win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 −$1,872 -134%
Will PAOK win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Young Boys win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Como win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Jun 17 $20 −$35 -174%
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? Jun 17 $581 −$594 -102%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 17 $568 −$456 -80%
Spread: SK Slavia Praha (-2.5) Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Sturm Graz win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $1,393 −$1,872 -134%
Will M. Tel-Aviv win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Norway Jun 17 $16 −$8 -47%
Hull City AFC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 11¢ $3 6m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 11¢ $0 38m
Ghana vs. Panama: Team to Take First Corner BUY Ghana 50¢ $3 45m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $198 46m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 11¢ $0 51m
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) BUY Panama 99¢ $495 51m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 11¢ $1 54m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $273 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Team to Take First Corner BUY Ghana 50¢ $2 1h
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) BUY Panama 99¢ $990 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 11¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $495 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $198 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 25¢ $0 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $248 1h
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) BUY Panama 99¢ $495 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 11¢ $0 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $111 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $22 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $222 1h
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) BUY England 100¢ $999 2h
Spread: Croatia (-5.5) BUY England 100¢ $994 2h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 100¢ $1,497 2h
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) BUY England 100¢ $2,992 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 11¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91,619.75 · official $91,622.05 (match) · 3500 history records