Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd604…460d sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-23%) realized −$59 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$51
other 8% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -22.6% -29.9% 34% 34% -33.4%
≤30d 29 -22.6% -29.9% 34% 34% -33.4%
≤90d 29 -22.6% -29.9% 34% 34% -33.4%
all 29 -22.6% -29.9% 34% 34% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 34% -33.4%
10% -36.6% 31% -39.8%
15% -42.8% 31% -45.6%
20% -48.4% 31% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 50¢ 39¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $55 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 +$4 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $7 +$7 +109%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $7 +$7 +102%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $7 +$5 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4 +$10 +237%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 +$3 +86%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 19 $3 +$4 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 +$6 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 +$17 +123%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 50¢ $26 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 15h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 40¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 12¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 16¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 37¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 48¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL TDK 65¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY TDK 45¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 18¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 26¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 49¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 40¢ $7 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $7 3d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 42¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 96¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 41¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 12¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 12¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.28 · official $20.28 (match) · 72 history records