Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D6 0xd607…6086 sports 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 537d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$91 (+2%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$89
politics 23% −$1
other 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +89.6% +71.5% 100% 100% +71.5%
≤30d 2 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 50% -22.9%
≤90d 7 +59.1% +43.9% 86% 86% +45.9%
all 29 +22.8% +11.1% 48% 31% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 31% -7.3%
10% +0.5% 31% -16.2%
15% -9.2% 28% -24.3%
20% -18.1% 28% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage537d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $18 +$16 +90%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $22 +$31 +140%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 11 $27 +$31 +114%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $26 +$17 +65%
Nuggets vs. Suns Apr 02 $17 +$9 +52%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 24 $8 +$5 +54%
76ers vs. Pacers Mar 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $3 +$4 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 18 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 29 $227 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 29 $3 $0 -5%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 30 $3 $0 -1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 03 $3 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? Jun 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $3 $0 +2%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 15 $488 $0 -0%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Jan 15 $489 $0 -0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Jan 15 $470 $0 -0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 15 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 52¢ $18 2d
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs BUY TLN Pirates 41¢ $22 28d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Gentle Mates 41¢ $22 37d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 46¢ $27 63d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 60¢ $26 76d
Nuggets vs. Suns BUY Nuggets 66¢ $17 85d
Grizzlies vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 65¢ $8 99d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY 76ers 80¢ $4 112d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 41¢ $3 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 197d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 231d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 231d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 231d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 231d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 231d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 231d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 231d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 231d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 94¢ $3 231d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 99¢ $3 260d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL No 99¢ $3 260d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen BUY No 99¢ $3 287d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 99¢ $3 287d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY No 99¢ $3 300d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $3 300d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 99¢ $3 328d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? SELL No 100¢ $3 328d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? BUY No 98¢ $3 339d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 99¢ $3 391d
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in BUY No 100¢ $3 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.91 · official $10.91 (match) · 245 history records