Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd60c…2b06 sports 563 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$33,637 (+141%) realized +$33,636 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +837% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +622% what you keep after slip
Net edge+622%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate77%578W / 172L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day119.7pace
Fees−$542est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$4,853
other 9% +$1,084
crypto 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+748.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 +1031.5% +923.7% 73% 73% +25.8%
≤30d 750 +837.3% +748.0% 77% 75% +19.4%
≤90d 750 +837.3% +748.0% 77% 75% +19.4%
all 750 +837.3% +748.0% 77% 75% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +748.0% 75% +19.4%
10% ← realistic here +666.9% 71% +8.0%
15% +592.8% 66% -2.5%
20% +524.9% 63% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +837% · $-wt +68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +674% → late +1001% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.85 per $1 lost it wins $3.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$33,636
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses578 / 172
Est. fees paid−$542
Open positions2
Markets (closed)750 / 563
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day119.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 750 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 450 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +530%
FC Imabari vs. Kamatamare Sanuki: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$7 +9436%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$3 +2836%
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Nara Club end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +6237%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 +$10 +36514%
Will Pau FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1435%
FC Anyang vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 +$2 +2996%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$4 +3864%
SK Brann vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +746%
EC Jacuipense vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +677%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $0 +$10 +42509%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $0 +$6 +11836%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 +$36 +63950%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1035%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1172%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +16114%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $0 +$7 +11747%
Will AS Nancy-Lorraine win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +2978%
SSC Bari vs. Virtus Entella: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$4 +6227%
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Molde FK: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $0 +$6 +25760%
Botafogo FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +3244%
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 −$6 -8722%
Will IK Start win on 2026-04-06? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -2089%
FK Dukla Praha vs. 1. FC Slovácko: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 −$8 -3557%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +3073%
Wycombe Wanderers FC vs. Bradford City AFC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +3522%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $0 +$19 +5709%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 +$12 +12682%
FC Petrolul Ploieşti vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 −$8 -2215%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Palermo FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$6 +1778%
Greece vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$27 +26281%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$38 +8346%
AS Saint-Étienne vs. USL Dunkerque: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +11816%
Colchester United FC vs. Oldham Athletic AFC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 +$6 +16174%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 17 $0 +$5 +8837%
FC Nordsjælland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1738%
FC Südtirol vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +4129%
FC Hradec Králové vs. FC Slovan Liberec: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$5 +1471%
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +2285%
Vietnam vs. Bangladesh: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$7 +4641%
Atlanta United FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 +$3 +3575%
Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$11 +2216%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$29 +36946%
CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2612%
CD Cobresal vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -192%
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$8 +765%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$12 +6682%
CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -47%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-01? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +8239%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 +$67 +116941%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $46 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $58 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 4h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $47 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $123 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $34 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $68 5h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $16 5h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 5h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 5h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 5h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 5h
Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-2.5) BUY Maghreb AS de Fès 10¢ $2 6h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 6h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 6h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $12 6h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.50 · official $243.21 · 3500 history records