Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd60e…8954 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$1
other 28% $0
economics 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage117d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $87 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $87 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 20 $89 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $89 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $87 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $87 13h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $87 4d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $87 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $87 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $87 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 24d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 25d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 25d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 31d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 31d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL No 100¢ $87 40d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $87 41d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 45d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 45d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $87 49d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $87 50d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $87 53d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $87 53d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $88 70d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $88 70d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 72d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 73d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $88 75d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $89 75d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $89 85d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $89 85d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $89 90d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $89 90d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? SELL No 100¢ $89 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records