Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd60f…f595 world 135 markets active 1d ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-8%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate49%62W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$2
sports 12% −$11
politics 9% −$6
other 7% −$1
weather 6% −$22
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.2% -6.6% 62% 56% -22.8%
≤30d 29 +5.9% -4.2% 62% 41% -19.0%
≤90d 88 -5.8% -14.8% 53% 26% -22.6%
all 126 -6.0% -14.9% 49% 24% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 24% -17.3%
10% -23.1% 12% -25.2%
15% -30.5% 7% -32.5%
20% -37.3% 5% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses62 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)126 / 135
History coverage114d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? No 51¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -75%
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? Jun 26 $1 $0 +23%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $6 −$3 -46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 $0 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +46%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 +$1 +50%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $1 $0 +16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $26 −$5 -21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -85%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +236%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 22 $2 −$1 -64%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 16 $3 $0 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $3 −$2 -66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $1 $0 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $9 −$2 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 09 $2 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $8 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on May 7 May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May 2026? May 07 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $2 26h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 41h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 42h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 42h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $0 43h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 43h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 44h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 91¢ $5 46h
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $1 46h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.18 · official $9.95 (match) · 1204 history records