Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd60f…5165 crypto 412 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$315 (-1%) realized −$316 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%221W / 187L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$390
7 days+$390
14 days−$194
30 days+$724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$536
crypto 43% −$646
other 8% −$326
world 0% −$19
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.8% +8.4% 100% 100% +6.1%
≤30d 131 -10.4% -18.9% 62% 57% -6.1%
≤90d 134 -11.6% -20.0% 60% 56% -7.0%
all 408 -2.9% -12.1% 54% 42% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 42% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 26% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 19% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 13% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$50 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$814
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses221 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions4
Markets (closed)408 / 412
History coverage235d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $575 +$62 +11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $326 +$40 +12%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $99 +$32 +32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $344 +$102 +30%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $492 +$84 +17%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $423 +$69 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 09 $361 −$359 -99%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $92 +$179 +194%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $80 −$36 -46%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $45 +$54 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$64 +64%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $270 −$270 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $258 −$132 -51%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $130 −$79 -61%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $12 +$3 +24%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $72 +$28 +39%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $108 +$47 +44%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 09 $220 +$100 +46%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $106 −$52 -49%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 08 $23 −$23 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $146 +$142 +97%
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Panna Udvardy: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $53 +$3 +6%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $162 −$116 -72%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 08 $171 +$65 +38%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $208 +$33 +16%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $323 +$58 +18%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 07 $277 +$47 +17%
Philip Henning vs. Alexander Donski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $9 +$8 +96%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $402 −$101 -25%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $134 +$41 +30%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $235 +$65 +28%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $179 −$165 -92%
ITF Monastir: Jacob Bradshaw vs Yassine Dlimi Jun 07 $104 +$74 +71%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma end in a draw? Jun 07 $283 +$157 +56%
Will Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū end in a draw? Jun 07 $254 −$252 -99%
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $122 +$71 +58%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. FC Imabari: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $238 −$236 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 07 $665 +$114 +17%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $445 +$50 +11%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $145 +$53 +36%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $153 −$67 -44%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $130 +$17 +13%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $245 −$86 -35%
Will Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw? Jun 06 $229 +$33 +15%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $100 +$35 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $326 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $131 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $99 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $0 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $344 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $2 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $4 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $571 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $575 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $492 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $492 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $421 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 10h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $361 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 98¢ $271 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $24 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $17 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 37¢ $16 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $36 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 22¢ $43 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 13d
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 13d
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $34 13d
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $45 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $165 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $101 13d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 13d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 13d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $28 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $814.07 · official $814.07 (match) · 1771 history records