Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd614…ffe3 other 15 markets active 6d ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$138 (-69%) realized −$137 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$134
other 22% +$1
economics 9% −$6
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +29.4% +17.1% 100% 100% +21.6%
≤30d 2 +29.4% +17.1% 100% 100% +21.6%
≤90d 2 +29.4% +17.1% 100% 100% +21.6%
all 14 -30.4% -37.0% 57% 21% -77.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 21% -77.8%
10% -43.1% 14% -80.0%
15% -48.6% 7% -81.9%
20% -53.6% 0% -83.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$23 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage595d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0058 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 86¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will Kanye West launch his own blockchain before April? Aug 18 $19 +$2 +9%
Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Feb 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump mention $MAGA before Election? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Joe Rogan announce he is voting for Trump? Feb 24 $0 $0 +25%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Feb 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kraken IPO in 2024? Feb 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Feb 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross less than $45m opening weekend? Feb 24 $2 $0 +9%
Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? Oct 24 $17 −$6 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.91 · official $16.91 (match) · 30 history records