Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd615…ae32
weather · 1054 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,897 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,894 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$555
Realized+$1,894
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses961 / 9
Open positions84
Markets (closed)970 / 1054
History coverage19d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day133.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 84 History 970 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$39
14 days−$42
30 days+$1,894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $1 $21 +$20 (+1989%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+729%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Yes 37¢ 79¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+116%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Yes 6¢ 27¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+354%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 72¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+7100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 76¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 12? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $160 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $439 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $160 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $359 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $360 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $398 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $84 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,710 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $358 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% +$1,799
crypto 10% +$77
other 6% +$19
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY Yes 5¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on June 12 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on June 12 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -0.6% -10.0% 99% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 970 +2.6% -7.2% 99% 1% -5.6%
≤90d 970 +2.6% -7.2% 99% 1% -5.6%
all 970 +2.6% -7.2% 99% 1% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover133.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 1% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 1% -14.7%
15% -24.2% 1% -22.9%
20% -31.6% 1% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.98 · official $554.94 (match) · 3500 history records