Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd616…9948 politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$8
sports 13% −$1
other 13% −$14
world 9% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -3.3% -12.5% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$467
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage236d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $239 $238 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $198 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $15 −$13 -82%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $484 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $485 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 16 $485 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 15 $485 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $486 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $486 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $487 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 09 $487 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 09 $15 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Nov 30 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 39m
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 45m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 3h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 5h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 12h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 13h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 15h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 16h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 19h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 21h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 22h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 23h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 23h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 34h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.94 · official $466.94 (match) · 99 history records