Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd617…9472 weather 272 markets active 3d ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-10%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%126W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$20
14 days−$16
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$14
weather 38% −$51
other 14% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -61.0% -64.8% 26% 26% -28.5%
≤30d 292 -40.2% -45.9% 32% 32% -20.3%
≤90d 375 -41.3% -46.9% 34% 30% -26.7%
all 375 -41.3% -46.9% 34% 30% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.9% 30% -26.7%
10% -52.0% 28% -33.7%
15% -56.6% 22% -40.1%
20% -60.9% 14% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses126 / 249
Open positions0
Markets (closed)375 / 272
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 375 Trades
no open positions (207 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -285%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 34-35°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 62-63°F on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 36-37°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -287%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 57°F or below on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 648 history records