Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd61a…d76b crypto 1083 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$420 (+1%) realized +$420 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate85%920W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.7% -10.2% 87% 41% -12.5%
≤30d 62 -1.9% -11.3% 85% 40% -13.6%
≤90d 209 -1.4% -10.8% 89% 25% -13.3%
all 1083 +1.9% -7.8% 85% 40% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 40% -9.7%
10% -16.6% 15% -18.4%
15% -24.7% 8% -26.3%
20% -32.1% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$37 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses920 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1083 / 1083
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1083 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $82 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $77 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $67 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $75 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $76 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $86 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $54 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $44 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $90 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $49 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $66 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $73 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $46 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $75 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $79 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $71 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $89 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $88 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $59 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $87 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $47 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $83 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $38 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $69 +$17 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $115 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $42 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $43 +$12 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $66 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $82 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $44 +$12 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 05 $86 +$23 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 05 $97 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $37 +$10 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $32 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $78 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $76 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $66 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $44 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $90 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $57 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $24 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records