Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd61a…b493 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%30W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days+$15
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$9
other 30% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +61.8% +46.4% 44% 44% -43.4%
≤30d 59 +23.9% +12.1% 51% 49% -7.7%
≤90d 60 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 48% -9.5%
all 60 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 48% -9.5%
10% -0.4% 42% -18.1%
15% -10.0% 37% -26.1%
20% -18.8% 30% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses30 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster 36¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+178%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Gen.G 51¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+96%)
Will Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw? No 86¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 68¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+47%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 71¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner Sentinels 75¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-24? No 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? No 83¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner LYON 87¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Eintracht Spandau 85¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-19? No 80¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? No 90¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Xtreme Gaming 46¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 47¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+111%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? No 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? No 55¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner T1 48¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+108%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Eintracht Spandau 36¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+178%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Team Heretics Academy 51¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+96%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Aurora 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 $0 -13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$2 +95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$3 -70%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $4 $0 -11%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$1 -43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$1 -51%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2 +$1 +58%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$3 +174%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Hashiras - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 02 $4 $0 -7%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-17? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +97%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-18? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +132%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +90%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $2 +$6 +274%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $2 +$7 +388%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 25 $2 −$1 -53%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 May 25 $2 +$1 +47%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Hashiras - Map 1 Winner May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +63%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$1 +48%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$1 +38%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $2 −$1 -28%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 +$1 +91%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 $0 +11%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $2 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 92¢ $2 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 18¢ $1 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 35¢ $2 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 37¢ $1 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 59¢ $2 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $2 15h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 61¢ $1 29h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Heretics Academy 64¢ $1 29h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 51¢ $2 29h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 48¢ $2 30h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 51¢ $2 30h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 85¢ $2 30h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 72¢ $1 31h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 49¢ $1 31h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 49¢ $1 31h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 36¢ $2 31h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 71¢ $2 39h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $2 40h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 51¢ $2 40h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $2 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $2 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 38¢ $1 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ $2 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $2 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $2 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 34¢ $1 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $2 2d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 43¢ $1 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 19¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.64 · official $49.15 · 109 history records