Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd61e…b1d1
crypto · 33 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$34 -53%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage47d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $30 −$28 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 42% -25.4%
≤30d 31 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 42% -25.4%
≤90d 32 -21.7% -29.2% 41% 41% -59.6%
all 32 -21.7% -29.2% 41% 41% -59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 41% -59.6%
10% -36.0% 41% -63.5%
15% -42.2% 38% -67.0%
20% -47.8% 38% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.00 (match) · 47 history records