Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd61f…a873 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,528 (-19%) realized −$6,528 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,194per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,293
7 days−$1,212
14 days−$1,212
30 days−$1,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$7,836
finance 30% −$10,270
world 7% −$1,541
sports 7% +$764
crypto 2% −$163
politics 1% −$313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -32.6% -39.0% 32% 26% -14.8%
≤30d 21 -39.0% -44.8% 29% 24% -16.1%
≤90d 21 -39.0% -44.8% 29% 24% -16.1%
all 29 -25.5% -32.6% 28% 24% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 24% -19.4%
10% -39.0% 21% -27.2%
15% -44.9% 17% -34.2%
20% -50.3% 17% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,505) neutral
Persistence
early -32% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,650 vs −$804 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,528
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,194
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $507 +$463 +91%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $3,512 +$449 +13%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $118 −$115 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $6,518 +$550 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,224 +$2,259 +185%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $565 −$550 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$287 +278%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $553 −$540 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $405 −$400 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $511 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $905 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,623 +$514 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,884 −$2,830 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,057 −$531 -26%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $315 −$303 -96%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 10 $2,471 −$2,471 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 10 $6,945 −$6,945 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 10 $744 −$744 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $200 +$237 +118%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 07 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $400 −$400 -100%
Kristi Noem out by March 31? Mar 06 $1,505 +$8,441 +561%
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31? Feb 13 $169 −$169 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $3,961 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No $21 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No $26 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $1,505 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 87¢ $502 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $502 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $3,483 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL No 99¢ $7,067 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 5h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 91¢ $5,013 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $1,504 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $257 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $206 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $970 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $390 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $103 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $41 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $512 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY No 57¢ $405 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records