Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd61f…c6a6 other 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,552 (+7%) realized +$21,720 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +153% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +94% what you keep after slip
Net edge+94%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%296W / 158L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,045per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$110,301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+128.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 +79.1% +62.1% 59% 35% +6.2%
≤30d 398 +69.1% +53.0% 64% 37% +2.6%
≤90d 454 +152.6% +128.5% 65% 41% +32.0%
all 454 +152.6% +128.5% 65% 41% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +128.5% 41% +32.0%
10% ← realistic here +106.7% 28% +19.4%
15% +86.7% 21% +7.8%
20% +68.4% 16% -2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +153% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +182% → late +123% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$564 vs −$209 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.06 per $1 lost it wins $5.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$3,047
Realized+$21,720
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses296 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)454 / 313
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$1,045
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists No 85¢ 91¢ $425 $455 +$30 (+7%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals No 74¢ 84¢ $370 $422 +$52 (+14%)
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals No 74¢ 84¢ $370 $418 +$48 (+13%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists No 82¢ 81¢ $410 $405 −$5 (-1%)
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals No 75¢ 80¢ $375 $400 +$25 (+7%)
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals No 82¢ 87¢ $342 $362 +$21 (+6%)
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals No 95¢ 98¢ $300 $308 +$8 (+3%)
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals No 98¢ 88¢ $196 $175 −$21 (-11%)
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals No 99¢ 50¢ $158 $81 −$78 (-49%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $269 $20 −$248 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 211 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Davis Chatfield win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Matthias Schmid win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Adrien Saddier win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $111 +$4,069 +3654%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $169 +$2,282 +1347%
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Henry Lebioda win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Phil Mickelson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $169 −$213 -125%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Jeremy Paul win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $187 −$195 -104%
Will David Lipsky win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Adam Scott win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $111 +$405 +364%
Will Harris English win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $111 −$140 -126%
Will Lee Hodges win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Charl Schwartzel win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Patrick Fishburn win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Luke Clanton win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Kevin Roy win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Billy Horschel win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $213 −$217 -102%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $169 −$213 -126%
Will Casey Jarvis win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $35 +$633 +1791%
Will Naoyuki Kataoka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Pierceson Coody win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Joe Highsmith win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $111 +$3,505 +3147%
Will Patton Kizzire win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Seong-Hyeon Kim win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Brice Garnett win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Zac Blair win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $36 +$608 +1701%
Will Taylor Moore win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 30 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Kensei Hirata win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $24 +$1,258 +5165%
Will Cam Davis win the 2026 Valspar Championship? Jun 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $68 47m
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $228 52m
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $46 52m
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $370 53m
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $375 1h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists BUY No 85¢ $402 1h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists BUY No 85¢ $23 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists BUY No 82¢ $412 1h
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $488 5h
Leroy Sané: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $360 5h
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $8 5h
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $196 5h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $300 5h
Deniz Undav: 2+ assists BUY No 94¢ $94 5h
Deniz Undav: 1+ assists BUY No 78¢ $194 5h
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $356 5h
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $225 5h
Leroy Sané: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $120 5h
Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $273 5h
Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $15 5h
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists BUY No 81¢ $78 5h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY No 87¢ $348 5h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY No 88¢ $440 5h
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists BUY No 81¢ $85 5h
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $262 5h
Kai Havertz: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $323 5h
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists BUY No 81¢ $81 5h
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,047.15 · official $2,975.90 · 3500 history records