Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd625…4d7c
other · 68 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,255 +212%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,070 · open +$68
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$460
Realized+$2,070
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions30
Markets (closed)38 / 68
History coverage65d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 30 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $259 $339 +$80 (+31%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-41%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan India 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 62¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +218%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$8 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $263 −$26 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 24 $4 −$4 -99%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $10 $0 -4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 05 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $232 +$2,158 +931%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $12 −$12 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 33% −$55
other 31% +$71
politics 28% +$2,146
crypto 5% −$9
world 2% −$10
economics 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 50¢ $5 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 51¢ $5 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 50¢ $5 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $8 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $5 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $2 6h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.0% -12.2% 35% 35% -5.3%
≤30d 29 -20.2% -27.8% 31% 28% -27.6%
≤90d 38 -12.0% -20.4% 26% 24% +447.7%
all 38 -12.0% -20.4% 26% 24% +447.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 24% +447.7%
10% -28.0% 24% +395.3%
15% -35.0% 24% +347.4%
20% -41.3% 24% +303.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.12 · official $460.12 (match) · 181 history records