Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd628…a698 sports 1414 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$615 (-0%) realized −$599 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate84%1163W / 227L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$52
14 days+$38
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,016
sports 24% +$720
world 19% +$469
weather 10% −$154
finance 2% +$94
politics 1% −$163
crypto 1% −$51
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$19
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -1.6% -11.0% 88% 9% -9.0%
≤30d 222 +0.3% -9.3% 89% 11% -8.8%
≤90d 1100 -0.6% -10.0% 85% 19% -9.4%
all 1390 +0.5% -9.1% 84% 19% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 19% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 10% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$25 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$701
Realized−$599
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1163 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1390 / 1414
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$94
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? No 84¢ 80¢ $177 $168 −$9 (-5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 94¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 86¢ 84¢ $126 $124 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 81¢ 80¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 94¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 79¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 69¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $120 +$1 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $120 +$10 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $158 +$8 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $150 +$8 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $156 +$6 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $150 +$9 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $165 +$5 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $343 +$14 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $132 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $131 +$6 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $150 −$19 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $157 −$8 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $115 +$6 +5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $150 +$5 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $195 +$8 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 +$20 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $150 +$7 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $137 +$10 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 −$17 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 −$46 -66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $200 +$3 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $75 +$6 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $238 +$4 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $120 +$6 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $160 +$30 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $150 +$6 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $60 −$33 -56%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombi BUY 95¢ $5 11m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $121 42m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $46 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $127 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $50 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $120 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $166 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $158 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $19 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $158 7h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $93 19h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $90 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $162 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $96 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $150 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $120 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $45 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $130 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $102 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $159 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $4 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $165 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $150 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $358 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.09 · official $706.09 (match) · 3500 history records