Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd629…34f2 sports 66 markets active 14h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+9%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$50
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$36
other 33% −$10
crypto 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -15.7% -23.7% 28% 28% -24.5%
≤30d 66 +9.1% -1.3% 36% 36% -5.5%
≤90d 66 +9.1% -1.3% 36% 36% -5.5%
all 66 +9.1% -1.3% 36% 36% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 36% -5.5%
10% -10.7% 35% -14.6%
15% -19.3% 33% -22.8%
20% -27.3% 33% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 42
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage12d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$14 +282%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $13 +$15 +112%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $9 −$1 -12%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$8 +84%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$11 +103%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +113%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$11 +217%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$7 +137%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$10 +184%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$7 +135%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 +$17 +335%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$16 +302%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$13 +69%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +235%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +254%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +242%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$9 +178%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $19 14h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $17 17h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 17h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 19h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 21h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 16¢ $8 21h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $9 21h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 53¢ $10 44h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $10 44h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 47h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 23¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $11 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 19¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records