Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd62a…de09 crypto 367 markets active 8h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+3%) realized +$59 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%168W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$52
14 days+$145
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% +$136
crypto 17% −$49
sports 16% −$82
other 3% −$11
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -7.3% -16.2% 48% 43% -15.0%
≤30d 363 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 40% -9.9%
≤90d 363 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 40% -9.9%
all 363 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 40% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 40% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 31% -18.5%
15% -36.4% 18% -26.4%
20% -42.6% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses168 / 195
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)363 / 367
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -42%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -34%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -66%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$8 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$17 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 13h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 32h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 32h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 32h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 32h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.18 · official $2.18 (match) · 804 history records