Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd62b…0c9a
crypto · 197 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$259 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$259 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses147 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage83d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 197 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 02 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 26 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 06 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 06 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 06 $22 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$249
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -12.3% -20.6% 61% 54% -31.0%
≤30d 29 -15.3% -23.4% 59% 52% -45.5%
≤90d 197 -5.4% -14.4% 75% 45% -15.8%
all 197 -5.4% -14.4% 75% 45% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 45% -15.8%
10% -22.6% 22% -23.8%
15% -30.1% 11% -31.2%
20% -36.9% 5% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 519 history records