Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D6 0xd62c…05af other 11 markets active 5d ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$124 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$727per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$6,879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +44.3% +30.5% 75% 50% +12.0%
≤30d 4 +44.3% +30.5% 75% 50% +12.0%
≤90d 4 +44.3% +30.5% 75% 50% +12.0%
all 4 +44.3% +30.5% 75% 50% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.5% 50% +12.0%
10% +18.0% 50% +1.3%
15% +6.6% 50% -8.5%
20% -3.8% 50% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$108 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$6,879
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage57d
Avg bet$727
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,456 $1,669 +$213 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,538 $1,235 −$303 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $959 $1,072 +$113 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $805 $1,027 +$222 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $986 $764 −$222 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $787 $602 −$185 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $470 $511 +$41 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Jim Parillo win the Legend Trade Series? Jun 11 $500 +$24 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $483 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $809 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $827 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $985 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,012 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,493 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,576 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 5d
Will Jim Parillo win the Legend Trade Series? BUY Yes 95¢ $500 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,878.74 · official $6,878.74 (match) · 19 history records